MITIGATION OF PEAK OIL

The 'mitigation of peak oil' concerns delaying the date and minimizing the impact of peak oil production from conventional oil wells. Mitigation can be achieved through fuel conservation, substitution, and the development of non-conventional oil resources.^[1]
Because mitigation can reduce the consumption of traditional petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the Hubbert curve (the change in production over time predicted by Hubbert peak theory). In the chart of world oil consumption it can be seen that only mitigation efforts after 1973 and 1979 oil shocks lowered oil consumption. Most recessions since the 70s have had no effect on curbing the oil consumption shown in the graph. Conversely the shape of the curve also affects mitigation efforts.^[2]
Key questions for mitigation are the viability of solutions, the roles of government and private sector and how early these solutions are implemented.^[3][4] The responses to such questions may determine whether or not the lifestyle of a country can be maintained, and may affect the carrying capacity of the planet.

Contents

Conservation

Fuel substitution

Static installations

Mobile applications

Non-conventional oil

Implications of an unmitigated world peak

See also

References

Conservation

Oil can be conserved in a number of ways. Because most of the oil is being consumed for transportation^[5], much of the discussion regarding mitigation of the effects of oil depletion center around the development of transportation that uses less oil, or require much less than used by current vehicles.
Today, these include the application of public transport, high mpg hybrid vehicles, bicycles, diesel vehicles,^[6] battery electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.
Additionally, as oil gets more scarce the price will rise, which itself will conserve the use of oil to a degree by reducing the demand.
More comprehensive mitigations include better land use planning through smart growth to reduce transportation inducements, increased capacity and use of mass transit, vanpooling and carpooling,^[7] bus rapid transit, telecommuting, and human-powered transport from current levels.^[8] Rationing and driving bans are also forms of mitigation. In order to deal with potential problems from peak oil, Colin Campbell has proposed the Rimini protocol.

Fuel substitution

While there is some interchangeability, the alternative energy sources available tend to depend on whether the fuel is being used in static or mobile applications.

Static installations

The substitution of oil with other fossil fuels is theoretically relatively easy when static installations are concerned, as in the case for electricity generation, for example. Reserves of coal are substantial, and the technology to use it is well established. Increasing the use of coal, however, would lead to higher carbon emissions which is likely to be politically unacceptable in many countries due to the implications of global warming, although carbon capture and storage may provide a solution. Natural gas is another alternative, and combined cycle power generation using natural gas is the cleanest source of power available using fossil fuels, producing about 30% less carbon dioxide than burning petroleum and about 45% less than burning coal.^[9] The major difficulty in the use of natural gas is transportation and storage because of its low density. Natural gas pipelines are economical, but are impractical across oceans.
Nuclear power provides an alternative to fossil fuels that has been exploited in some countries. The use of nuclear power is often a highly contentious issue, though in the long term concerns about nuclear power may be largely overcome if aneutronic fusion power can ever be developed commercially.^[10]
Renewable energy sources provide other possible alternatives that rely on more conventional technologies and do not use fossil fuels. The usefulness of many renewable energy sources is also highly contested.

Mobile applications

Due to its high energy density, oil has a unique role as a transportation fuel. There are, however, a number of possible alternatives. Among the biofuels the use of bioethanol and biodiesel is already established to some extent in some countries.
The use of hydrogen fuel is another alternative under development in various countries, alongside hydrogen vehicles^[11] such as General Motors Sequel. In the context of a hydrogen economy, hydrogen is an energy storage medium, not a primary energy source, and consequently the use of a non-petroleum source would be required to extract the hydrogen for use.

Non-conventional oil

Main articles: Non-conventional oil

Non-conventional oil is oil produced or extracted using techniques other than the traditional oil well method from sources such as tar sands, oil shale and the conversion of coal or natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons through processes such as Fischer-Tropsch synthesis Currently, non-conventional oil production is less efficient and have a larger environmental impact relative to conventional oil production. Compared to conventional oil, much more energy is required to extract oil from non-conventional sources,^[12] so increasing costs and carbon emissions. Technology, such as using steam injection in tar sands deposits, is being developed to increase the efficiency of non-conventional oil production.
Synthetic fuel, created via coal liquefaction, requires no engine modifications for use in standard automobiles. As a byproduct of oil embargoes during Apartheid in South Africa, Sasol, using the Fischer-Tropsch process, developed relatively low-cost coal-based fuel. Currently, about 30% of South Africa's transport-fuel (mostly diesel) is produced from coal.^[13] With crude-oil prices above US$40 per barrel, this process is now cost-effective.

Implications of an unmitigated world peak

Oil depletion scenarios

According to the Hirsch report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy in 2005, a global decline in oil production would have serious social and economic implications without due preparation. Initially, an unmitigated peak in oil production would manifest itself as rapidly escalating prices and a worldwide energy crisis. While past oil shortages stemmed from a temporary insufficiency of supply, crossing Hubbert's Peak means that the production of oil continues to decline, so demand must be reduced to meet supply. If alternatives or conservation (orderly demand destruction) are not forthcoming, then disorderly demand destruction will occur, with the possible effect that the many products and services produced with oil become scarcer, leading to lower living standards.

★ Air travel, using roughly 7% of world oil consumption,^[14] would be one of the affected services. The energy density of hydrocarbons and the power density of a jet engine are so necessary for aviation that hydrocarbon fuels are nearly impossible to replace with electricity, to an extent beyond any other common mode of transport.

★ A US Army Corps of Engineers report^[15] on the military's energy options states

★ Shipping costs^[16]
Shipping costs are particularly relevant to a country like Japan that has greater food miles.^[17]

★ Increasing cost of oil for importing countries ultimately reduces those countries' purchase of non-oil goods abroad. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco discusses oil and the US balance of trade:^[18]
US indications of economic volatility have manifested themselves in the largest increase in inflation rates in 15 years (Sept. 2005), due mostly to higher energy costs.^[19]

★ Significant oil producing countries will have a national purchasing advantage over similar countries with no oil to sell. This can result in larger militaries for oil producers or inflation of the price of whatever commodities they purchase.^[20] Saudi Arabia purchased US$40 billion worth of arms from the US between 1990 and 2000.^[21]

★ The United States averaged 464 gallons of gas per person in 2004.^[22] Therefore, increased gasoline cost will make gas reducing alternatives popular for lower income US residents.
Oil industry analyst Jan Lundberg proposes a dark scenario called petrocollapse.^[23] Contrasting views note that most uses of oil, from plastics to transportation fuels, have substitutes.^[24]

See also

★ Energy security

★ Global strategic petroleum reserves

★ Low-carbon economy

★ Oil crises

★ Proposed Oil phase-out in Sweden

★ Soft energy path

★ Special Period (in 1990s Cuba following the end of cheap Soviet oil exports).

★ World energy resources and consumption

References

1. {{cite web
|url= http://www.aspo-usa.com/fall2006/presentations/pdf/Bartis_J_Boston_2006.pdf
|title= Unconventional Liquid Fuels Overview. 2006 Boston World Oil Conference
|author= Jim Bartis, RAND Corporation
|publisher= Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas - USA
|date= 2006
|accessdate=2007-06-28

2. The Shape of World Oil Peaking: Learning From Experience Robert L. Hirsch
3.
President Discusses Advanced Energy Initiative In Milwaukee
4.
proposition 87
5. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/figure_33.html
6.
Honda announces cleaner, "greener" diesel power train for automobiles
7.
Saving Oil Executive Summary
8.
Principal Means of Transportation to Work
9.
Natural Gas and the Environment
10.
Neutron-Free Fusion Reactions in Laser Plasma
11.
California Hydrogen Highway
12.
About Tar Sands
13.
South Africa has a way to make oil from coal

14.
How many air-miles are left in the world’s fuel tank?
15.
Energy Trends and Their Implications for U.S. Army Installations Donald F. Fournier and Eileen T. Westervelt
16.
Soaring Oil Prices Will Make The World Rounder Jeff Rubin and Benjamin Tal
17.
Peak Oil and Japan's Food Dependence
18.
FRBSF Economic Letter 2006-24 'Oil Prices and the U.S. Trade Deficit'
19.
Import price rise in 2005 due to continued high energy prices Jeffrey Bogen
20.
Brad Setser's Web Log
21.
Saudia Arabia
22.
U.S. Gasoline Per Capita Use by State 2004
23.
petrocollapse
24.
Energy Future Coalition Report of the Bioenergy and Agriculture Working Group