POST HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC

'Post hoc ergo propter hoc', Latin for "after this, therefore because of this", is a logical fallacy (of the questionable cause variety) which assumes or asserts that if one event happens after another, then the first must be the cause of the second. It is often shortened to simply 'post hoc' and is also sometimes referred to as 'false cause' or 'coincidental correlation'. It is subtly different from the fallacy ''cum hoc ergo propter hoc'', in which the chronological ordering of a correlation is insignificant.
Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because temporal sequence appears to be integral to causality. The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based ''solely'' on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection. Most familiarly, many superstitious beliefs and magical thinking arise from this fallacy.

Contents

Pattern

Examples

See also

External links

Pattern

The form of the post hoc fallacy can be expressed as follows:
:
★ 'A' occurred, then 'B' occurred.
:
★ Therefore, 'A' caused 'B'.

Examples

From ''Attacking Faulty Reasoning'' by T. Edward Damer, Third Edition p. 131:

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From ''With Good Reason'' by S. Morris Engel, Fifth Edition p. 165:

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See also

★ Causality

★ Chain reaction

★ Domino effect

★ Butterfly effect

★ Superstition

★ Magical thinking

★ Cargo cult

★ Correlation does not imply causation (Cum hoc ergo propter hoc–"with this therefore because of this")

★ Regression fallacy

External links

★ Post hoc fallacy in the Skeptic's Dictionary by Robert T. Carroll

★ Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc in the ''Fallacy Files'' by Gary N. Curtis

★ Non Causa Pro Causa in the ''Fallacy Files'' by Gary N. Curtis