SHORT RATE MODEL

In the context of interest rate derivatives, a 'short rate model' is a mathematical model that describes the future evolution of interest rates by describing the future evolution of the 'short rate'.

Contents

The short rate

Particular short-rate models

Other interest rate models

References

The short rate

The short rate, usually written ''r''_''t'' is the (annualized) interest rate at which an entity can borrow money for an infinitesimally short period of time from time ''t''. Specifying the current short rate does not specify the entire yield curve. However no-arbitrage arguments show that, under some fairly relaxed technical conditions, if we model the evolution of ''r''_''t'' as a stochastic process under a risk-neutral measure ''Q'' then the price at time ''t'' of a zero-coupon bond maturing at time ''T'' is given by
:$P(t,T)\; =\; mathbb\{E\}left[left.\; exp\{left(-int\_t^T\; r\_s,\; ds$
ight) }
ight| mathcal{F}_t
ight]
where $mathcal\{F\}$ is the natural filtration for the process. Thus specifying a model for the short rate specifies future bond prices. This means that instantaneous forward rates are also specified by the usual formula
:
And its third equivalent, the yields are given as well.

Particular short-rate models

Throughout this section $W\_t$ represents a standard Brownian motion and $dW\_t$ its differential.
#The Rendleman-Bartter model models the short rate as $dr\_t\; =\; heta\; r\_t,\; dt\; +\; sigma\; r\_t,\; dW\_t$
#The Vasicek model models the short rate as $dr\_t\; =\; a(b-r\_t),\; dt\; +\; sigma\; ,\; dW\_t$
#The Ho-Lee model models the short rate as $dr\_t\; =\; heta\_t,\; dt\; +\; sigma,\; dW\_t$
#The Hull-White model (also called the extended Vasicek model sometimes) posits . In many presentations one or more of the parameters and $sigma$ are not time-dependent. The process is called an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.
#The Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model supposes
#In the Black-Karasinski model a variable ''X''_''t'' is assumed to follow an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and ''r''_''t'' is assumed to follow $r\_t\; =\; exp\{X\_t\}$.
Besides the above one-factor models, there are also multi-factor models of the short rate, among them the best known are Longstaff and Schwartz two factor model and Chen three factor model (also called "stochastic mean and stochastic volatility model"):
#The Longstaff-Schwartz model supposes the short rate dynamics is given by the following two equations: $dX\_t\; =\; (\; heta\_t-Y\_t),dt\; +\; sqrt\{X\_t\},sigma\_t,\; dW\_t$, $$
d Y_t = (zeta_t-Y_t),dt + sqrt{Y_t},sigma_t, dW_t.
#The Chen model models the short rate, also called stochastic mean and stochastic volatility of the short rate, is given by : , $$
d lpha_t = (zeta_t-lpha_t),dt + sqrt{lpha_t},sigma_t, dW_t, $$
d sigma_t = (eta_t-sigma_t),dt + sqrt{sigma_t},eta_t, dW_t.

Other interest rate models

The other major framework for interest rate modelling is the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. Whilst the two frameworks are actually equivalent in scope for modelling interest rates with one source of uncertainty (one driving Brownian motion), the latter, including as it does the Brace-Gatarek-Musiela model and market models, are often preferred for models of higher dimension.

References

★ Financial Calculus, Martin Baxter and Andrew Rennie, , , Cambridge University Press, 1996, ISBN 978-0-521-55289-9

★ Interest Rate Dynamics, Derivatives Pricing, and Risk Management, Lin Chen, , , Springer, 1996, ISBN 3-540-60814-1

★ Interest Rate Modelling, Jessica James and Nick Webber, , , Wiely Finance, 2000, ISBN 0-471-97523-0

★ Modeling the Term Structure of Interest Rates: An overview., Rajna Gibson, François-Serge Lhabitant and Denis Talay, , , The Journal of Risk, 1(3): 37-62, 1999., 2001,

★ Modern Pricing of Interest-Rate Derivatives, Riccardo Rebonato, , , Princeton University Press, 2002, ISBN 0-691-08973-6